Market Themes and Key Developments

Macroeconomic Review

During the week of August 7, 2026, precious metal prices staged a notable rebound. In economic data, the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report came in as a significant disappointment. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase. Additionally, the combined payroll figures for May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. The U.S. July unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% month-over-month, also falling short of forecasts. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to postpone its previously planned September interest rate hike.

On the geopolitical front, Hassan Kashkavi, a spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, stated that Iran and Oman have established the general framework of a memorandum of understanding regarding shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The final text and specific details will be announced shortly. U.S. officials indicated that progress has been made between Oman and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the U.S. will lift its blockade of Iranian ports. The U.S. actions will continue to be contingent on actual performance and linked to Iran's fulfillment of its commitments.

Fundamental Analysis

During the week of August 7, 2026, gold warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) stood at 113,616 kilograms, a change of -6 kilograms from the previous week. Silver warehouse receipts changed by 69,872 kilograms to 1,261,244 kilograms. On the COMEX side, gold inventories changed by -329,120.04 ounces to 26,708,284.19 ounces, while COMEX silver inventories changed by 1,473,699.51 ounces to 334,294,697.70 ounces. In precious metals ETFs, as of the week of August 6 (the latest available data), the gold SPDR ETF held 1,014.72 tonnes, and the silver SLV ETF held 14,939 tonnes. As of August 4, 2026, CFTC positioning data showed net speculative long positions for gold at 132,398 contracts, and net long positions for silver at 11,067 contracts.

During the week of August 7, 2026, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.32% from the previous week. The electronic components sector index, which is related to precious metals, surged 16.86%, and the photovoltaic sector index rose 6.67%. On the photovoltaic price index front, as of the latest data on June 3, 2025, the index stood at 14.07, unchanged from the prior period. The Photovoltaic Managers' Index was reported at 103.82, a sequential increase of 12.15.

Strategy

Gold: Cautiously Bullish

Macroeconomic catalysts are the primary short-term driver. The unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls data indicates no immediate need for the Fed to raise interest rates, and markets are continuing to reduce the previously overpriced expectations for future monetary policy tightening. Furthermore, the emergence of positive signals of geopolitical de-escalation could help control inflation, further weakening the case for a Fed rate hike. Therefore, the current operational strategy for gold remains to focus on buying on dips for hedging purposes, with an operational range of 900 yuan/gram to 950 yuan/gram.

Silver: Cautiously Bullish

Silver's logic is currently similar to gold's. However, due to silver's inherently higher volatility, while the strategy of continuing to buy on dips for hedging remains viable, greater attention must be paid to position sizing and strict adherence to stop-loss orders.

Arbitrage: Pause

Options: Pause

Risks

Overseas liquidity shocks.