According to a research report released by Guosen Securities Co.,Ltd. (SZ: 002736), in late September, Iran submitted a new negotiation draft, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline gradually resumed operations, the strait reopened for navigation, and Saudi Arabia ramped up ship-to-ship transfers, causing oil prices to fluctuate downward. Affected by the US-Israel-Iran war, the central range for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 is projected at 80-100 USD per barrel. The upstream oil and gas exploration sector is expected to maintain relatively high prosperity, and refining enterprises with overseas production capacity and export qualifications are expected to see improved profitability. The main viewpoints of Guosen Securities Co.,Ltd. (SZ: 002736) are as follows.
Oil Price Review
In September 2026, the average Brent futures price was 102.1 USD per barrel, up 13.7 USD per barrel month-on-month, closing at 103.5 USD per barrel. The average Brent spot price was 117.2 USD per barrel, up 25.6 USD per barrel month-on-month, closing at 120.7 USD per barrel. The average WTI futures price was 95.5 USD per barrel, up 12.9 USD per barrel month-on-month, closing at 90.4 USD per barrel. In early September, Middle East conflict reignited as Yemen's Houthi armed forces attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, and Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline was attacked and shut down, escalating the risk of Middle East supply disruptions, with Brent futures prices once rising to 110 USD per barrel. In mid-September, Saudi Arabia announced the restart of the East-West oil pipeline, supply panic sentiment cooled, and oil prices slightly retreated to around 100 USD per barrel. In late September, Iran submitted a new negotiation draft, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline gradually resumed, the strait reopened for navigation, and Saudi Arabia increased ship-to-ship transfers, causing oil prices to fluctuate downward.
Supply Side
Since July, the United States canceled its oil sales exemption for Iran, after which Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthi armed forces imposed a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia, and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline restricted transport capacity, causing crude oil exports through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to come to a standstill, threatening approximately 4 million barrels per day of crude oil supply in the short term. However, in September, crude oil exports from major Middle East oil-producing countries rebounded to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest level since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict at the end of February. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to US-Iran peace talks and their impact on navigation conditions and supply through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Demand Side
Major international energy agencies project that global crude oil demand will change by between -2.5 million and 380,000 barrels per day in 2026, and are expected to grow by 2.36 million to 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027. According to the latest monthly reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA, crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be +380,000, -2.5 million, and -1.68 million barrels per day compared with 2025, respectively. Crude oil demand in 2027 is expected to increase by 2.36 million, 2.6 million, and 2.38 million barrels per day compared with 2026, respectively.
Inventory Side
The EIA forecasts global crude oil destocking of approximately 3 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and expects further destocking of 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. As of the end of September, US crude oil inventories fell to 711 million barrels, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 284 million barrels, both hitting the lowest levels since 1983. OECD inventories are expected to fall to 2.3 billion barrels by the end of 2026, the lowest since 2003.
Risk Warning: Fluctuations in raw material prices; fluctuations in product prices; downstream demand falling short of expectations, among others.